Pre-Season Basketball Ratings are a Hoax 10/23/2022
In the past few years, I have analyzed the St. Louis area's Boys and Girls conferences with predictions on their records for the upcoming year. Sorry Folks, NOT THIS YEAR. And I will tell you why. If you have followed my past buckets ratings for Boys and Girls, I have rated every team in every Missouri State HS League class. No one in their right mind does this. And if you kept track of my championship season predictions, I was able to predict, based on my ratings, about 83% of all games from district to sectional to the state tournament. 83% of ALL GAMES in all classes. So I feel real good about the algorithm I used to rate teams during the season. But my track record for predicting season records for the St. Louis Area teams was only so-so. I had this high-falluting formula with return scoring, Value Point System (VPS), and scoring differential but it only predicted about 60% of the actual winning percentage for last year's teams. ...