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Showing posts from October, 2022

Pre-Season Basketball Ratings are a Hoax 10/23/2022

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 In the past few years, I have analyzed the St. Louis area's Boys and Girls conferences with predictions on their records for the upcoming year.  Sorry Folks, NOT THIS YEAR.  And I will tell you why. If you have followed my past buckets ratings for Boys and Girls, I have rated every team in every Missouri State HS League class.  No one in their right mind does this.  And if you kept track of my championship season predictions, I was able to predict, based on my ratings, about 83% of all games from district to sectional to the state tournament.  83% of ALL GAMES in all classes.  So I feel real good about the algorithm I used to rate teams during the season. But my track record for predicting season records for the St. Louis Area teams was only so-so.  I had this high-falluting formula with return scoring, Value Point System (VPS), and scoring differential but it only predicted about 60% of the actual winning percentage for last year's teams. ...