Gramp's Missouri Boys Class Two Basketball Ratings

 Gramp's Missouri Boys Class Two Basketball Ratings - Updated 3/19/2023

Back in February, Plattsburg was undefeated but they weren't my #1 team.  No, Salisbury was #1 back then and, despite a tragedy the week of the final, overcame their grief and the loss starter, London White, to win their first title since 2013. beating a hot Principia team by nine in the final.  Salisbury relied on Cooper Francis all season and he showed how special he is by taking charge in the state tournament.  @CooperFrancis4 will be back for his senior season. They had a 2nd place finish in ‘21. 

Principia ended Plattsburg's undefeated season with a two-point win, outrebounding the Tigers 39-19.  It's tough to stay undefeated when you get half as many rebounds as your opponent. The young Panthers relied on Steven Okoro to pull down the boards, and the young guards to drop in some threes.

The state championship trophy presentation was a truly emotional moment with London White's family accepting the trophy for the team. Congrats to Salisbury!


Good luck to all next year.  Enjoy the final ratings.




Updated 2/10/2023

It is almost district time, so I thought I would post the latest ratings by district rather than by rank.  But before I do that, I thought I would take a look at district 15 where Plattsburg comes in undefeated (at 21-0 at this posting) but has a strong challenge from my son-in-law's hometown Gallatin, with his Bulldogs at 19-2.  Could Gallatin derail the Plattsburg train?

That's a tall order with Plattsburg hosting the district tournament.  Assuming both make the final, there will be a large home crowd and a familiarity with the gym that is hard to overcome and then you also have two extraordinary players in Isaia Howard who led the Tigers with 38pts, and James Braddy who had 20pts in their win over Lutheran KC.

Both teams have had a great season but Gallatin seems to be peaking at the right time. The two teams have played three common opponents, Lathrop, West Platte, and Lawson. One of Gallatin's losses was an upset by West Platte. The other common opponent games were fairly comparable. Plattsburg finishes with another tough game with West Platte and East Buchanan.

Can Gallatin upset Plattsburg? Possibly. Over the season, Gallatin actually has a slightly better game rating and they have been on fire their last eight games with a 127 rating over better opponents than Plattsburg. Can Gallatin put a lid on indomitable Isaia Howard and James Braddy? Maybe. So I wouldn't be too comfortable as a Tiger fan cuz the Bulldogs have a shot at upsetting the undefeated district host, Plattsburg.

I get notified on Twitter by the Plattsburg folks with every victory. I wish them the best of luck for the rest of the year, but the statistics suggest it won't be an easy task to win the class two state title, with Gallatin being their first hurdle. Greenville would be the next big challenge before meeting New Franklin or Salisbury in the final. Good luck to all the teams.

The rest of the districts are posted below this analysis.


Looking at the districts, district three is packed with solid teams but Greenville and Advance have an edge. District seven has my two top teams, Salisbury and New Franklin, along with #13 Harrisburg and #14 Westran. District 15 has Gallatin and Plattsburg, two top ten teams discussed above.

Should be an exciting class two tournament.





as of February 2, 2023

Puxatawny Sam saw his shadow so there are six weeks of more winter and about the same amount of time to decide the class two boys' state title, except the two "finalists", Salisbury and New Franklin, are both in district seven so that district winner might be the eventual state champion and the loser of district seven might have lost by the smallest of margins.  Such is life in the MSHSAA world.  The best do not always make it to the big dance stage.

But there are other great class two teams that might take umbrage to me even suggesting that they are the best two teams.  Eugene, Greenville, Hartville, Cooter and Plattsburg might all argue they are the best of the class.  Plattsburg is rated #1 in the MBCA and I get reminded of every game they win by being included in every Plattsburg tweet.  It is somewhat comforting to be included in their Tweet successes but, on the other hand, discombobulating to have that Tweet retweeted 20 times and get a Twitter notification of every darn retweet.

I guess my son-in-law's home town of Gallatin could be the next to lobby Gramps for top billing.

Here's my updated class two ratings:



Updated 01/17/2023

I compared the Missouri Basketball Coaches Association popularity poll to my ratings in December and saw a mishmash of teams in the top five that weren't in my top ten based on statistical analysis.  Unfortunately, I hear that coaches ignore voting in the MBCA poll and the polls are skewed by that lack of support.

I am not highlighting the MBCA poll to make fun of it.  I just hope some class two boy's coaches will take heed of the teams that belong at the top of their polls based on the merits of their record, rather than a few coach's opinions.  

Here's the MBCA poll and my rating on the right:    

Class 2 Boys:            Gramps rank

  1. Westran                        # 13
  2. Principia                       # 8
  3. Ash Grove                    # 11
  4. Hartville                        #  9  
  5. Bernie                          # 28
  6. Plattsburg                    # 6 (hey, we agree on one)
  7. Advance                      # 10
  8. New Franklin               # 1  (let's give the Bulldogs some respect, huh?)
  9. Salisbury                     # 2
  10. Lincoln                      # 21

Others receiving votes: Putnam County, Marionville, Eugene, Weaubleau, Gallatin, Norwood, Cooter


I hope someone is taking another look at New Franklin, Salisbury and Greenville.  All great teams that deserve more recognition in the polls.

Enjoy





as of December 28th, 2022

I snuck a peek at the MBCA polls before I issue a rating update.  The Missouri Coaches poll had Westran as #1, followed by Ash Grove, Hartville, Bernie, and Putnam County.  These are all very good teams, but not the ones that I have on top of class two, based completely on an unbiased statistical analysis of game scores.  Hartville and Ash Grove are both in my top ten but Westran is #13, Bernie is #21, and Putnam Country is #39. 

So hats off to Eugene who tops Gramps listing with Salisbury, Plattsburg, New Franklin, Advance, Hartville, and Principia of St. Louis in hot pursuit.  I know I will probably get lots of heat from fans of schools that the MBCA loves but my statistics did not reward, but that is the nature of ratings.  The fan enthusiasm seems to increase two- or threefold for the smaller, class one and two schools.

It's sometimes hard to sort out these rankings early.  New Franklin has one loss, to Westran.  Westran is undefeated at 11-0, but are winning by a differential of 19.  New Franklin is winning by an average of 39 and Eugene by 32.  Sometimes these scoring differentials skew the ratings.  The more games are played, the better the ratings.  I expect Westran will move up.  Other teams will move down.  I have to look at all the games, not just one to rate teams so the New Franklin Overtime loss to Westran is just one data point.

Remember, it is early and things will change.  If you are a coach voting in the MBCA, pay attention to my top five.  They belong in your top ten.

Revised 12*30/2022 for error in Greenville rating





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