When the district champion isn't rated tops in the district?

 When is the district champion not rated top in the district?

Well, I had an inquiry from Kevin White about Kirksville, who won the class four district eight title, beating Mexico and Hallsville.  Macon, my top team in district eight, was eliminated by Hallsville in the first round.  So Kevin, posted "It’s funny that Kirksville is the 4th ranked team out of District 8, yet were District Champs and beat all three teams in the district ranked ahead of them, two on their home floors". 

Yeah, Kevin, it is funny but not in the way you think.  I rate teams on the entire season and so I don't always look at who won the district.  Sometimes a team comes out of the blue to win and it is really hard to rate them over teams that were more consistent all season.  When the teams are close, I might use what I call a weighted rating and put more stock in the district wins than the regular season.

So let's look at the four teams Kevin is talking about.  I took each team's entire season and recalculated.

I also looked at the head-to-head results.  I don't normally get this detailed with 550 teams to rate, but maybe I missed something, as Kevin suggested.  Kirksville beat Mexico by 12 in December, lost by five in January and won by four at District.  Advantage Kirksville.

Kirksville played Hallsville just once, beating them at Districts for the title.  Advantage Kirksville.

Finally, Kirksville lost to Macon early in the season by 19 and won by 8 in January.  Advantage Macon but Macon lost to Hallsville in the district semi-final so maybe its a push.



Mexico and Macon both had solid seasons and actually rated slightly higher than both Hallsville and Kirksville on a raw rating basis. But in the end analysis, all four of these teams are right on top of each other.  So this might call for a little weighting to lift Kirksville up and recognize their district title.


The last item I looked at was how the team rating changed from the season average vs. the final eight games.  While Macon had a 122-124 rating all season, they tailed off to 116 the last eight games.  the other three teams stayed at the 120 average.  So take away the small advantage that Macon had in head-to-head games and given Kirksville's consistency, I need to give Kirksville a nod over the other three teams and it is a very slight edge.  Kirksville is one-tenth of a rating point ahead of Hallsville.

How's that Kevin?  Satisfied now?  Now I need to repost these ratings.







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