Gramp's Missouri High School Basketball Ratings
Updated March 28, 2023
It must be another full moon tonight or at least all the planets will be aligned in a rare concentration of planets under the moon at sunset in the west. You should go outside and take a look. It might not happen again in your lifetime.
I have finished all the boys' and girls' Missouri basketball ratings for every school in every class in the state. That includes about 550 boys and 530 girls schools. Does anybody else do that? Would anyone else ever attempt rating all those teams?
So this is a wrap. I may add some additional statistics about playoff predictions or most improved teams but this is it, folks. I hit about 83% of all games based on my ratings and eight of the twelve class winners were my #1 rated team in early February. Not bad for this old coot.
I hope you have enjoyed my ratings this season. If you want to get involved next year and do one of the boys or girls classes, I will gladly train you in doing the ratings. You don't have to be retired or a grampa but you do have to like crunching numbers. I may hang up my hat and calculator on of these days.
To make it easier for you to get back to my latest Missouri High School Basketball ratings, you will find a link below to each Missouri boys and girls class which I will update about every two weeks. You can save the link in your web browser favorites and not have to rely on my Twitter posts to get the most recent ratings.
Check out the Boys' and Girls' class ratings and the all-class and alphabetical ratings with the links below.
Class One Boys Class Two Boys Class Three Boys Class Four Boys Class Five Boys Class Six Boys All Classes Boys All Classes Boys (alphabetical)
Class One Girls Class Two Girls Class Three Girls Class Four Girls Class Five Girls Class Six Girls All Classes Girls All Classes Girls (alphabetical)
Gramps Prediction rate for playoff games Boys state tournament picks Girls state tournament picks
March 4th, 2023
To make it easier for you to get back to my latest Missouri High School Basketball ratings, you will find a link below to each Missouri boys and girls class which I will update about every two weeks. You can save the link in your web browser favorites and not have to rely on my Twitter posts to get the most recent ratings.
Check out the Boys' and Girls' class ratings and the all-class and alphabetical ratings with the links below.
Class One Boys Class Two Boys Class Three Boys Class Four Boys Class Five Boys Class Six Boys All Classes Boys All Classes Boys (alphabetical)
Class One Girls Class Two Girls Class Three Girls Class Four Girls Class Five Girls Class Six Girls All Classes Girls All Classes Girls (alphabetical)
Gramps Prediction rate for playoff games Boys state tournament picks Girls state tournament picks
It must have been a full moon last night. Some strange things happened on the court with the Stripes. Yeah, we need to lay off those guys that officiate for high school, AAU summer, and winter feeder programs, but some strange things still happen.
Down in Farmington, Cooter and Principia had a game go over-time with Principia pulling out a three point win, 46-43 but it was an early scoring table/scoreboard error that has Cooter up in arms. Principia was having their way and the score was 18-6 when a Cooter player was fouled with 4:19 left in the first half. You can watch that segment of the game right HERE.
The Cooter player sinks both free throws and the scoreboard adds both point to the Cooter total. Score Principia 18, Cooter 8. The Facebook video winds down to 3:36 left. Principia is called for a blocking foul and all-of-a-sudden, the scoreboard reverts back to the 18-6 score. Cooter argues with the officials and files a protest immediately. Cooter would have won the game in regulation with their two earned points. Without them, the game goes to overtime and they are out.
According to my officiating friend in Maryland, a scorekeeping play might be correctable at any time, but most errors need to be corrected within the next two plays.
"By rule: a correctable error is:
failure to award a merited FT
awarding an unmerited FT
wrong free thrower
FT at wrong basket
failure to count or cancel a score.
error must be recognized before the 2nd live ball after the error.
IMHO the fact that the points were awarded and then taken away means it was a ‘bookkeeping mistake’ which can be fixed at any time. filing a protest at the
time of the mistake was probably the right thing to do. the NFHS rulebook
used to say ‘the federation does not recognize protests’."
It was a strange situation. Without a video replay, how do referees correct this type of error?
At Eureka last night, there were some great games with Lafayette, led by Matt Haefner, beating #1 seed Parkway West. Haefner carried the Lancers over the second half and was unstoppable and fouls kept piling up on both sides. The competition was fierce and several players fouled out, but Haefner kept his cool and piled up 31 of the Lancers' 54 points for a two-point victory. Coach Keim stayed cool and calm the entire way and has brought the Lafayette team through some roller-coaster season that started 1-6 to a 16-12 season.
In the second game, Eureka and Marquette had a typical knock-down and drag-out game between two familiar rivals. Some of these kids have played each other or been on the same summer team so there was some bragging rights going down. Mason Dunlap, Eureka's premier point guard, had 21 points at half-time and freshman Brody Owen had 15 points. The second half was a back and forth affair until Eureka pulled out to a six point advantage, 42-36 with about a minute left. Marquette called a time-out and then a bizarre sequence happened that could have changed the final outcome. Watch it
HERE.
The first buzzer sounded to alert the teams to return to the court. The Marquette players begin to return but the coach is still giving instructions. The Eureka team is still huddled at the bench. The Marquette players seem to be waiting for the Eureka team to return to the floor but the sideline ref seems to be in a hurry and motions the Marquette player to come to the throw-in spot. You hear one last loud whistle and then he hands the ball to the player as the Eureka team is sprinting back to play defense. Marquette has an easy throw-in and an easy corner three by Brody Owen, score is now 42-39. What do you think? Should a ref ever do that in a game? Especially when it is one minute left and a tight contest.
It didn't matter that much. Marquette tied it at 42 but then Dakota Joggerst sank three clutch free throws, Marquette missed a desperation three to tie, and Dunlap sank two free throws and Eureka won 47-42, with Dunlap getting 28 points. Brody Owen had something like 20 for the 'Stangs.
My referee friend said that normally he would go over to the scoring table and issue a bench warning. I don't know. It was a bizarre situation in a district semi-final. Both games were bizarre but it maybe ended Cooter's season while the Eureka Cats move on and play Highway 109 rival Lafayette in what should be an epic battle.
Strange night but please continue to respect the referees. They have a hard job, but......
Must have been a full moon last night.
Updated 2/23/2023
It was an interesting night of basketball last night. I watched the New Franklin vs. Salisbury boys class two district seven semi-final and it was a great game with Salisbury coming out on top 63-50. I have had both Salisbury and New Franklin as a #1 team in class two despite the fact that undefeated Plattsburg has been on top of the MBCA and other polls.
I even rated Gallatin a slight favorite over Plattsburg but West Platte put Gallatin's post-season dreams to bed with a 61-59 upset of the Bulldogs.
I had a little back-and-forth chat with Earl Austin Jr. (Prep Hoops Missouri) on his Twitter post, talking about how the New Franklin-Salisbury game could have been the "state championship" game. It is unfortunate that two of the best teams in any class would end up playing in a district semi-final but that is the way MSHSAA sets these tournaments up. There will be a number of high-quality games in the district that would be better than a state quarter-final or semi-final game because the best four or eight teams do not get to the dance. Just look at class six, districts 5 or 8, where five or six of the top ten teams in the class are jammed in one of those districts.
Going back to class two, Earl pointed out that individual players can make a huge difference in an outcome. I just look at score differentials but when the game gets down to crunch time, often the best players on the floor take over, just as the 6'4" guard Cooper Francis did for Salisbury last night in the third quarter. Francis had seven points at the half but put up another 12 or 14 in the second half. New Franklin is a solid team but they don't have a Go-To guy like Francis, who is a special athlete. Earl pointed out that past champions all had that Go-To guys. Earl said, "Look at the most recent Class 2 champs, Norwood had Devault, Campbell had Fowler, Hartville had Piper and a loaded team and, Greenwood had Aminu. I put Francis in that category". Earl thinks there are a number of great class two teams that will contend. Earl thinks there is a great group of contenders in the mix in class two boys this year.
Plattsburg is definitely one of those teams and Plattsburg has that kind of guy with Isaia Howard, 6'5" junior and Plattsburg's all-time leading scorer with 1900 points, or something crazy like that. I expect Plattsburg and Salisbury could be in the state championship final and then it will be a battle of two outstanding players to see who wins out.
How did Gramps do with last night's games and the previous class one and two district contests? Well, I mentioned the Gallatin upset by West Platte and I missed on a number of #4 vs #5 seed games but the overall predictions looked pretty darn good. Based on my ratings, higher-rated teams won 85% of the boys' games (104 out of 123 games) and 92% (71 out of 77 games) of the girls' games.
That translates to an 88% prediction rate for boys and girls (175 out of 200 games).
Here are links to all the classes. I have not updated the ratings for this week's games yet.
To make it easier for you to get back to my latest Missouri High School Basketball ratings, you will find a link below to each Missouri boys and girls class which I will update about every two weeks. You can save the link in your web browser favorites and not have to /rely on my Twitter posts to get the most recent ratings.
Check out the Boys' and Girls' class ratings and the all-class and alphabetical ratings with the links below.
Class One Boys Class Two Boys Class Three Boys Class Four Boys Class Five Boys Class Six Boys All Classes Boys All Classes Boys (alphabetical)
Class One Girls Class Two Girls Class Three Girls Class Four Girls Class Five Girls Class Six Girls All Classes Girls All Classes Girls (alphabetical)
Gramps Prediction rate for playoff games
Updated 2/16/2023
It's that time of year when we begin to reflect on a season of triumphs and defeats. Our emotions run a gamut from elation to depression.
Some coaches are celebrating the hard work of their staff and their players and preparing for a long run into the state tournament play-off. Others are lamenting their luck and lack of success, pondering how their season turned into an ugly duckling when it promised a beautiful swan.
Players and parents are feeling a similar range of emotions. Players are celebrating both their individual and team successes. Their parents are floating on cloud nine, elated with their son or daughter's success and the contribution their kid has had to a highly successful team outcome. They are proud as punch and busting their buttons, so to speak. Although buttons are not fashionable right now, you get my drift.
Some players may have regrets about how they performed, how little opportunity they had to play, and how their considerable work on the practice court did not translate into playing time. Some players may actually be mature enough to see that their self-worth is not tied to playing time. They have enjoyed the opportunity of being part of a team dynamic and they are looking forward to better opportunities in an upcoming spring or fall sport. Basketball is fun. It isn't life, as Danny Rojas in Ted Lasso keeps saying about soccer..." football is life" is not really true. There is more to life than how one did on the basketball floor in high school.
For those players' parents, it might be more traumatic. They poured money into their child's development. They drove to countless practices, games, and tournaments around the state and the county to help their son or daughter prepare for this moment. This chance to shine on the hard court. But it did not happen. Within that group, there are various levels of disappointment, frustration with coaches and the lack of opportunities their kid received, anger with the mistreatment of their kid, or the disparity in playing time, based upon their assessment of the kids that did play in front of him or her. They see their kid get a chance to play and get jerked off the floor for one mistake, a bad pass, a missed or inappropriate shot, or a stupid foul, while others might get multiple chances and remain on the court. It can be obvious to the entire gym that there is a disparity but that doesn't matter to the coaching staff. They may be aware and ignore, or they may just not like the kid because their attitude does not fit their view of the world. It does not matter.
It does not matter that all the statistics in the world show this travesty.
The coach is right. But for kids and parents in that situation, it makes the season seem interminable.
I hate to see this. Kids should be given opportunities that give them a chance to develop and "slow the game down" so that they are successful. When they get dropped into a game cold and have not played much, it seems unrealistic that they will suddenly perform to the coach's expectations. Kids should get opportunities early in the season so that they can develop confidence and improve their game skills. I know these are not feeder program games and that some kids are good enough to make the team but just aren't good enough to make the rotation, BUT when you see older, less-skilled players consuming the playing time to the disadvantage of promising younger guys and gals, then it kills their desire to play and it pushes them out of the sport. It kills the enthusiasm of their parents. You can see it in their eyes. "My kid never got a chance". They still somewhat tepidly celebrate the team's success but inside they hurt.
Still, they should be proud of their athlete for being a great teammate and being a part of a team experience AND they should tell their player how proud they are. Swallow their own disappointment and be a good cheerleader for their kid.
So the season brings us that gamut of emotions.
Something like life itself.
We all suffer the roller coaster of life and basketball is a miniature version of life.
Good luck to all the teams and players as they prepare for districts.
Updated 2/01/2023
The call came this week to some very busy sportswriters and photographers working at St. Louis Prep Sports for the Post-Dispatch. It wasn't a "hey, we switched the schedule and we want you to attend the Vashon game tonight". No, it was a "RIF call". A reduction in force. The Post-Dispatch has cut the staff from eight to three (two openings and three fine writers/photographers). The River Front Times article talks about Ben Vessa and Paul Kopsky. In addition, writer Dave Wilhelm and photographer Paul Halfacre were let go by the newspaper. That leaves three guys trying to provide coverage for the entire area.
These guys did a great job covering games and providing tons of action photos in the E-edition, which by the way, just went up from $9.95 to $19.94 a month. So it is a sad week for high school sports coverage with these cuts. I loved the work they did and sent a Tweet to Ben (see below) and was surprised by Ben's reply:
Updated 1/30/2023
Well folks, this is Grandma and my last day in Chicago, visiting our son and his family without my computer. I’m falling behind on Gramps ratings but I’m getting lots of quality grandkid time.
I was looking at an article about Central College where one of our older grandsons played a year on the junior varsity team.
The Varsity was pretty pathetic, logging a 7 and 17 record over last year with two 6’10” guys that substituted for each other and a four guard offense with four guards who shot under 30% from three. That explains a lot of why their record was 7-17 last year and a new coach this year.
The new coach is using both 6-10 centers in the lineup at the same time, pounding it inside and racking up a 13 and five record, six and oh in the conference. They have been much more successful with the taller lineup.
On the local level, I’ve watched a high school team that has a four guard offense and a 6-6 center and they’ve shot under 20% from three and, although they’ve got a winning record, I wonder why they wouldn’t try and put in their two tall guys (who shoot 35-40% from the arc) at the same time and pound it inside more often. Perimeter offenses only work if you can hit an open three. Seems like they might even have a better record with a little taller lineup. But, que Sera que Sera, such as things are, you get caught up in certain offensive mindset and a certain lineup and it’s hard to change. Of course, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over without success and expecting a different outcome.
I hope to be back to Gramps ratings tomorrow afternoon and will start posting later in the week.
Wishing all the teams in the state the best of luck going in the districts.
Update 1/25/2023
I am sorry. I fell out of my chair and can't stop laughing, after looking at the MaxPreps Missouri state boys basketball rankings. I have tried talking to Max Preps about their ranking algorithm to no avail. They have improved the calculation over last year but it still places more emphasis on team record and less on strength of competition and scoreboard results, resulting in a flawed rating system.
Here are the top twenty-five teams in Max Preps ratings and where those teams rate in Gramp's rankings. Link Academy and Staley lead the listing and they would in Gramp's ratings too. But just down the list, Max Preps has Marionville, Mansfield, and Plattsburg, three good teams from classes two and three but they aren't even the top-rated teams in those classes, according to my rating calculations.
The other problem with Max Preps is that a bunch of teams doesn't use it and their game results and records are incomplete.
Below the top twenty-five, I have listed five teams that don't make the cut at Max Preps but are highly regarded by Gramps:
Update 1/18/2023
I am almost done updating all boys' and girls' classes for a second time. I still have class one boys and girls to double-check and then I will update the alphabetical and all-class ratings.
It can be a long bus ride home when your team loses by 18, but it is even a longer bus ride home when you shoot 1-20 from three with a lot of open looks, even if the bus is only going 10 miles.
Statistically, when you shoot 30% from three, you expect to make six of those shots, and if you do, all of a sudden, it isn't an 18-point blow-out, it is a ONE-possession game. So when you lose by three, you still might churn mentally over a close loss, but you don't have the inner doubts of an 18-point loss unless you look at the shots you could have made to make it a three-point game.
I like what Tedd Lasso says in the Disney+ show of the same name. He tells Sam Obisanya, "You know what the happiest animal in the world is? It's a goldfish. It's got a 10-second memory. Be like a goldfish!" Sam gives him a funny look and Ted fires back, "be like a goldfish!!! They forget everything that happened after 10 seconds".
Districts will be at our place, a friendly shooting confines. Forget this loss. You will get them at Districts (again).
Updated 1/17/2023
Have you ever been in an office where someone makes an off-hand comment about someone and suddenly that person becomes a pariah with everyone including upper management? They may not even deserve it but suddenly things start showing up on their annual review and then, they start to become what that off-hand comment was? With a slightly different attitude toward that employee, ie. believing the best and not the worst, that employee might have developed into a strong contributor but the situation generally sours when a few mean or jealous comments poison the office environment. Instead of hammering the unknowing employee, management should be nipping the off-hand comments in the bud.
It happens in basketball too. Assistant coaches or a few players demean a fellow teammate's play and all of a sudden, that player isn't doing anything right, no matter how well they might play. Basketball is a game of mistakes and you can look for those mistakes or you can look for and reward the successes. Wouldn't it be better to reinforce the positives rather than dwell on the failures?
Update 01/16/2023
Today is Martin Luther King's birthday. A national holiday, but one that many companies do not honor with a day off. We remember King's speech in Memphis the day before he was shot and killed on the balcony of the Lorraine motel on April 4th, 1968. We have visited that museum in Memphis and it is impressive. King's speech on April 3rd was about economic injustice and the low pay that garbage collectors received from the city of Memphis. Many of the same economic inequities still exist today that were so prevalent in 1968.
I see examples of those inequities in basketball in St. Louis. I have watched a number of Public High League teams in tournaments and some of them are god-awful. They have some athletic kids but they just don't have the skill sets that many suburban kids get with better coaching, trainers, and skill camps. In St. Louis city, eighth graders can pick any school in the PHL they want to attend. The good ones go to Vashon. This is not an indictment of Vashon. Just a fact. They get the cream of the crop and many of these kids have been part of summer/AAU teams that are sponsored. They get the best coaching and the best training. I don't know what the kids that go to Roosevelt do during the summer. My guess is they don't have the economic resources to join a team or work with a trainer or go to a camp. Probably playing pickup at a blacktop schoolyard hoops.
These kids have not had the opportunities that so many others get. They don't even know how to shoot a basketball. Half of their shots don't even hit the backboard. They could be good. They could have decent teams but they don't get the coaching and training a kid in West County St. Louis is getting. It's not much different than the garbage workers that King was talking about in Memphis nearly sixty years ago.
How do we give these kids the same opportunities that kids in the 'burbs' get? Back in 1954 in Brown vs. Board of Education, the Supreme Court struck down the segregated school system that we erroneously called "separate but equal". There wasn't anything equal about those black schools back in the 1950s and while we struck down that unjust educational system, has anything really changed? Whites fled the cities to the suburbs and the city schools are back to where they were in the '50s, underfunded, understaffed, and not providing those students the same opportunities suburban school students have.
Back in 1967. King said "It’s much easier to integrate a lunch counter than it is to guarantee an annual income. It’s much easier to integrate a bus than it is to get a program that will force the government to put billions of dollars into ending slums.”
You have to ask, "has anything really changed in 60 years"?
To make it easier for you to get back to my latest Missouri High School Basketball ratings, you will find a link below to each Missouri boys and girls class which I will update about every two weeks. You can save the link in your web browser favorites and not have to /rely on my Twitter posts to get the most recent ratings.
Check out the Boys' and Girls' class ratings and the all-class and alphabetical ratings with the links below.
Class One Boys Class Two Boys Class Three Boys Class Four Boys Class Five Boys Class Six Boys All Classes Boys All Classes Boys (alphabetical)
Class One Girls Class Two Girls Class Three Girls Class Four Girls Class Five Girls Class Six Girls All Classes Girls All Classes Girls (alphabetical)
Update 01/15/2023
I have a bone to pick with what I call "Punitive Coaching". Maybe you see it for your favorite team. As I check out the St. Louis teams, I occasionally see it in certain coaches. What is "Punitive Coaching", you ask?
Well, you put a young, developing player in the game and you hope they succeed. You do more than hope. You put a lot of effort into preparing them to play but basketball is a "high failure" game, isn't it? What's a good two-point shooting percentage? 50%? Three-point FG% 35%? Well, you wouldn't pass my algebra classes with 35 or 50%, would you? And if you dropped your art project just before you fire it in the pottery oven, it wouldn't go over big with your Art teacher, but kids lose balls and make bad passes in EVERY game they play. Again, you prepare them to make more good passes and get more assists than turnovers and that is called success. 51% assists to 49% turnovers.
So your coach puts in the aspiring young lad or lass into the game and, guess what? Instead of making a good pass or taking a high-percentage shot, they deliver a turnover or an air-ball and what does a "Punitive coach" do? Jerk them out of the game. Boom. Instead of building confidence, you got that kid sitting on the end of the bench, brooding about their one brief moment to shine and they made ONE Mistake and they are getting splitters on the end of the bench (well, maybe not splinters cuz there aren't many wooden benches anymore).
I just don't get it. If a player go into the game knowing she/he is going to get the hook as soon as she/he screws up one time, what do they do? Play it safe. Don't take the open shot. Pass it off instead of doing something positive within the offense. He/she plays a zero-minus game because they know their minutes will disappear as soon as they make ONE mistake.
Let the kids play without fear. That's all for today. Enjoy the ratings.
Updated 1/13/2023
Do you want to learn more about Gramp's rating system?
Read these old blogs:
You can do this in your own living room (gramps2021missourihoops.blogspot.com)
You can do this in your Living Room-Part 2 (gramps2022missourihshoops.blogspot.com)
What is weighting and when do you use it?
gramps2022missourihshoops.blogspot.com/2022/02/what-i
Updated 1/12/2023
I really like coaches that are unafraid to put freshmen and sophomores out on the court and give them an opportunity to strut their stuff. Eureka coach Austin Kirby did that with my grandson, Nate Parker, back in the 2018-2019 season and he did a nice job while some of the seniors were out with injuries. Kirby is giving a couple of nifty frosh, Jaxson Joggerst and Joe Rauls, an opportunity to develop and grow, along with a deep junior class that did not get many opportunities last year because of an overabundance of seniors. Without these opportunities, underclassmen end up taking their lumps in their junior or senior season while lesser players take up playing time.
Dale Ribble at Westminster has always leaned towards the frosh and sophs that showed promise. Back in 2018, he had five seniors but wasn't afraid to play underclassmen. By 2021, he only had one senior, who played little, but those underclassmen took them to the class four final vs Vashon. Giving those lowly underclassmen playing time helped them develop and compete in the finals. It takes some courage to push those youngsters out on the court against more mature players but it pays dividends in the next few years.
On the other hand, you see some coaches who rely heavily on seniors, sometimes to their folly. Just because a guy has spent four years in a program does not mean they are a quality player. I would rather see a limited senior player cut or benched so that a younger, more promising player can be developed.
I often look at Value Player Scores (VPS) for athletes, which measure the good things (shots made, steals, assists, rebounds) divided by the bad things (missed shots, turnovers, fouls). If a player has a VPS of 1.0 or above, they are doing more good things than bad. If a team expects to win, the team VPS better be above 1.0 or the coach is living dangerously.
Too often, I analyze different teams and see some really poor VPS scores for veteran players that are getting a boatload of playing time. They turn the ball over too much, take bad shots, foul excessively and I wonder why they aren't on the end of the bench? Give the youngsters a chance to develop. But too many coaches over-value "experience" and think that four years of practice will turn a pumpkin into a beautiful carriage. When the VPS is 0.5, the pumpkin will never be a carriage. I wish more coaches would value VPS.
As I continue to refine the ratings, I am starting to see the actual scores coming out close to the rating spreads. I think I have amazed a few coaches by telling them what the spread would be and having them turn out purty darn close. Even a blind mule finds water.
But, of course, after I wrote this, I took a look at the Lindbergh Tournament scores for the Westminster vs. Jackson final, where I had Jackson winning by fifteen. And the spread was fifteen, but coach Ribble's Westminster squad took Jackson down a few notches with some hard-nosed defense and some great outside shooting. And remember that frosh, Ribble put into the line-up four years ago. A kid named Kobi Williams. Well, that experience paid off and Williams is a first-class recruit because his coach believed. Back to the drawing board Gramps.
Updated 1/05/2023
I am going to try something to make it easier for you to get back to my latest Missouri High School Basketball ratings. You will find a link below to each Missouri boys and girls class which I will update about every two weeks. You can save the link in your web browser favorites and not have to /rely on my Twitter posts to get the most recent ratings.
Gramp's ratings are based upon comparative scores for high school teams and the difference in rating is the approximate spread between two opponents. I start the new season ratings based on last year's final ratings, and, for the most part, teams are pretty predictable every year. Good teams continue to be good and lower-ranked teams continue to be, well, not so good. Early in the season, ratings may be based on only a few games, and the ratings get more reliable as more games are played.
I watched the best 0-13 team in the state of Missouri last night. McCluer took their 13th loss at Eureka, losing 38-57. They have some athletic young players, including Demaurin Eubanks and Brandon Johnson but they are being outscored 43-65 which projects to winning about 5% of their games. It doesn't get any easier as their schedule includes Belleville East, Kirkwood, Webster Groves and John Burroughs, but one of these nights, I expect they will bring home an upset. It's tough to watch a program that won 20 games a year back in 2009-2012 and in 2020 backslide so far. If these guys played defense as well as they do on offense, they might have a better record. Their JV team was impressive so they seem to have a brighter future around the corner. For now, with a 100 rating, they are my best winless team in the state, ranked 265th in all-class boys' ratings. Best wishes to the Comets for the rest of the year.
Posted 1/03/2023
It takes me a couple of days to plow through a boy's or girl's class. The lower classes have more teams and each team has played four to six games. I try to honor teams with more wins but when two teams have split a home and away series, who do you rate higher? You may find your team has beaten someone but is rated lower. Why you ask? Well, the Gramp's algorithm calculates a team's rating based on all their games. Your team might beat a higher-rated team but not done as well against lower-rated teams. Be patient. It all works out in the wash.
The Holiday tournaments were in full swing and I can't keep up with all the scores. I need to find assistants that can handle each class of boys or girls and spread the fun. Fun is defined as tediously entering comparative scores into a large spreadsheet and getting bleary-eyed after four hours of entering and rechecking ratings.
Gramps' ratings get all jumbled with these Holiday tournaments. Well, the improbable happened at Coaches vs Cancer in St. Louis when the #13 seed Lafayette Lancers beat a highly rated Columbia Hickman team for the championship, 48-38 Friday night. Lafayette was 1-6 coming into the tournament and had hit rock bottom after losing to Eureka the Wednesday before Christmas.
I had looked at Hudl scouting videos of Lafayette prior to their pre-Christmas Eureka loss. The Lancers were running a high tempo, quick transition offense, taking bad shots, turning it over 20 times a game and playing out of control. Coach Keim, stepped back from that strategy (since it wasn't working) and slowed down the offense. It obviously worked. That Wednesday before Christmas, Eureka took down a good Lafayette Wildwood squad, led by outstanding power forward Matt Haefner, 45-28. Haefner scored 20-some points but his fellow teammates didn't help much. That loss left Lafayette at 1-6 after I had rated them one of the better class six teams in my early ratings. Grama and I walked out as Coach Bryan Keim was leaving and I wished him luck for the rest of the season.
Slowing down the offense really worked because they ran off four victories over Troy, Eureka, highly ranked class five perennial power, De Smet, and the Hickman Kewpies in the final. Haefner isn't doing all the heavy lifting now, finding teammates for back-cut baskets and driving the lane while opponents are double-teaming Haefner. All of sudden, a more patient Lafayette squad is 5-6 and they are playing like the team I rated 130 instead of the team that was at a 118 rating last week. So now Gramps has to figure in all these variables and the statistics don't add up. I hate these Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde situations with teams but I am glad that Keim is turning his team around.
I still need to get through class one girls so don't bother with the class one girl's links. Nothing there yet and the overall Missouri ratings for those class-one schools are based on last year's ratings. I hope to have them all done by the end of December.
So, here are the links for all classes, both boys and girls.
Next up? Class one girls are on my plate nest week.
Posted 12/13/2022
Right now, a lot of teams are trying to find themselves. With new players, many teams are searching for an identity, and they might struggle one night and be spectacular the next game. A good example of that identity crisis is my home team, the Eureka Wildcats, who displayed both ends of the spectrum this week. The Cats are a very good defensive team, giving up 34 points per game, but have struggled for offensive consistency with a low point on Wednesday, shooting 12% eFG and losing to Fort Zumwalt South 24-15. Yup, that's right. 15 points for the game. Hoping to bounce back, the Cats played an always excellent Francis Howell team and rediscovered their shooting, coming back from a 28-40 deficit with 4:30 left in the game to win 42-40. It was a heroic and memorable win, taking back a little revenge for a buzzer-beater loss at Howell two years ago. It had to be a gratifying win for the boys and coach Austin Kirby, but it drives Gramps ratings crazy when teams are up and down from game to game. The Cats will continue to win games defensively, even when the shots do not fall.
So, ratings can be a crap shoot when teams are still looking for their persona, but Gramps will keep churning through the game results until I feel pretty good about the ratings. By the end of February, I can predict the winner in about 85% of the games using the Gramps algorithm.
Posted 12/23/2022
I had a coach comment, "Glad to see some real ratings come out". I hope he's not referring to the Post-Dispatch or Missouri Basketball Coaches Association polls. I don't want to upstage anyone but if you are part of a poll, sneak a peak at Gramps' ratings because you might be missing a really good team. I will point those teams out if they don't eventually get recognized by the other polls.
I know there are a lot of rivalries around the state, but none are more ferocious than the one on Highway 109. Wednesday night was the Highway 109 Braggin' Rights matchups between both the boy's and girl's teams for Eureka and Lafayette High Schools. The two schools are both on Highway 109 and only 6.8 miles apart BUT, and that is a big BUT, the programs are miles apart in where they are going. As Grama and I were walking up to the school, I told her that the Eureka girl's game would not be close (maybe a 40-point spread). It was ugly. We walked in just before half-time and it was 42-4. Coach James Alsup, whose team won a state championship in 2000, is playing like they might go places again this year. Gramp's has them as the #9 team in class six, and, if it weren't for Incarnate Word, they might go all the way again this year. The Lafayette girl's finally warmed up in the second half against Eureka's bench, closing it to 60-17. Given how the Eureka feeder system keeps winning tournaments in every grade from 5th to 8th, I would say this dominance is going to continue forward. Best wishes to the Lady Wildcats.
On the boy's side, the Eureka-Lafayette contest was a dogfight until late in the third quarter, when the Eureka defense just plain wore down the Lancers. The 6'7" Matt Haefner, a really special offensive player, had 11 of the Lancers first half points and they led at half 13-12 but 6' senior guard, Carter Luft, dogged Haefner all night long and the rest of Haefner's teammates did not pick up the slack. Slick PG Mason Dunlap and shooting guard Dakota Joggerst took over the game and the Cats pulled away to a 43-28 win. Haefner ended up with about 20 of the Lancer's 28 points, but as I have said before, "Defense wins games" and Eureka is only giving up 33 points per game. They may not have the finely tuned offensive weapons yet, but they show some of the grittiest effort on the defensive end that I have seen in years. Gateway Sports Venue posted a great YouTube video, as always, at (575) LAFAYETTE @ EUREKA Highlights | Battle for Route 109 - YouTube
I hope Lafayette coach Bryan Keim gets the Lancer going or it will be a long season. The Cat's coach Austin Kirby, and company (including one of the deepest and most experienced coaching staff in the state), are getting the defensive effort out of their players but might be looking for Santa to bring a few more shot-makers for Christmas and the New Year.
After the boy's game, Coach Brian Karvinen, former Confluence boy's coach and now Union's girl's coach, came up in the stands and told me how much he appreciated my ratings. I cannot think of a better Christmas present than that kind of compliment. Brian's step-son, Shane Lockwood, played with our Grandson, Nate Parker, a few years back and was a big help to Nate fitting in on varsity as a lowly freshman. Shane is now a senior at the Naval Academy. Both Brian and Shane were raving about the accuracy of Gramp's ratings. Karvinen's Union Lady Cats are in my top 5 for class five and have a great shot at the state title. I wish both Brian and Shane a great 2023.
And then, last week, at the Norm Stewart Classic, announcer Paul Ellis mentioned Gramps ratings four times during his broadcast of last Friday's girl's games. Nothing like a few endorsements to keep me motivated and plowing through piles of Missouri high school basketball scores every morning.
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