Gramp's Missouri Class Four Girls Final basketball ratings

 Here are Gramp's Missouri Class Four Girls Final basketball ratings, Updated 3/28/2023

I had the Vashon girls rated #1 all year long and I thought their toughest game would be vs. my #2 team, Cardinal Ritter, in the district 5 final.  Vashon won that game by 12 and I thought that might be the closest game the Lady Wolverines might have in the state tournament but I was wrong.  Not the first time and probably not the last.

Who would prove Gramps wrong?  Well, the St. Joseph Benton girls did just that.  I had them rated #4 all year but a 14-point underdog to Vashon, and it looked like Vashon would coast to a victory in the first half of the finale, with a 24-16 lead at one point of the first half.  Benton would not go quietly, scoring the first 11 points of the second half and going up 55-44 with 3:47 left in the game.  Vashon kept picking at the lead but still was down by nine with just over two minutes left.  It looked grim for the Lady Wolves, except for one thing.  Free Throws.

Benton went to the line 21 times in the second half and the two overtimes but only made six.  Just six.  The Cardinals just need one more made free throw to win a state title in regulation time.  Just one more made free throw to win in the first overtime.  Just one to win in their fourth consecutive appearance in the final four.  It did not happen but the Cardinals were much better than Gramps had rated them.  They should be proud of their second-place finish.

How about the rest of my top ten?  Well, Cardinal Ritter is my #3 team with Park Hills Central, the third-place game-winner at #4, and Southern Boone, the fourth-place team at state, at #5.

Surprisingly (or not), the rest of the top ten are teams from the state tournament (Moberly, Visitation, and California) except for #8 Chillicothe who lost to Benton in the district 16 final, and Westminster Academy, who lost to Visitation in the district seven final.

There were some pretty competitive class four teams this year but none like Vashon and Benton.  And no game quite like that two-overtime finale.  It was a game for the ages.

Hope you enjoyed my girls' class four ratings all year.  C U next year.

updated 2/28/2023 for wrong district assignments

The season is coming to an end and class four girls start district play tomorrow.  

The Elephant in the Room is district  5 where #1 Vashon will probably play #2 Cardinal Ritter for the district title.  It could easily be a great state championship game with a little better playoff system.

There is some great competition in many districts with no clear winner.  Districts 1, 3, 7, 9, 10, 13-16 are up for grabs with multiple favorites in each.  I do not expect to have a high percentage of winners in those districts.  Just too close to call.

Here are Gramp's ratings by district.  

Good luck to all the teams.

Updated 2/12/2023

Vashon girls have a stranglehold on the class four playoffs and their toughest game of the post-season will be a district final versus Cardinal Ritter, the second-best team in the state.  Westminster and California may get a shot at the Lady Wolverines but I would bet on the Vashon gals facing St. Joseph Benton in the finale and coming home with another state title.

I took a peek at the MBCA poll and I am scratching my head about their rank order.  One team that should be on the radar is Westminster Christian Academy who, despite a 12-8 record, have played everyone tough.  I expect them to win their district and move into the second round of state.  The MBCA has St. James at #2 but they have fallen off of late and they are my #11 team after losses to Union and Hermann and some recent lackluster wins.  The rest of the MBCA poll is jumbled and I cannot figure out how Perryville, my #50 rated team is an honorable mention in the coaches poll.  

Continued success to all the class four teams.

I have listed all the class four girls' teams in the first table.  The ratings are posted by the district below this ranking.

Here are the class four girls basketball teams by district.  MSHSAA has not announced bracket seeds but I have listed each team ranked by rating in each district.  Districts seven, eight and nine are very competitive and any one of two or three teams in those districts could win the district title.

as of January 14, 2023

Vashon girls continue to dominate Missouri class four girls but I cannot help but be impressed with the depth of great teams across the state in class four.  Cardinal Ritter is a close second, followed by Westminster Academy, all from St. Louis.

The next eight teams in the top ten could be in any order.  They are all very close and just a few rating points behind the leaders.  The center of the state is really strong with Fatima, St James, California, Moberly, Centralia, Owensville, Southern Boone and Eldon looking very good.  St Josephs Benton up in the NW and Park Hills Central in the SE are also strong.  I do not know why, but the KC area does not have a strong contender right now in class four.

Keep up retweeting these ratings.  

Posted December 19, 2022.  I am a little ambivalent about Vashon's #1 ranking because most of their games have been with non-Missouri schools.  Once the Lady Wolverines start playing more Missouri opponents, I will have a better idea of where they belong but they are #1 for now.

Because Gramps model is interactive, changes in class five or six teams will show up in some changes in other classes, like class four.  I have not done a thorough review of class four again, but some teams shifted significantly, so I am posting a new ranking even though I have not entered all class four games since 12/16.

Enjoy the ratings (note: I moved Springfield Catholic and Frontier Stem to class three in this update).

updated 12/16/2022