Gramp's Missouri Class Five Girls Final basketball ratings

 Here are Gramp's Missouri Class Five Girls Final basketball ratings - Update 3/28/2023

It was an interesting class five girls' state tournament.  My previous #1, John Burroughs, got bumped off in the first round by upstart Cape Notre Dame who then gave Carl Junction everything they had, losing by just four.  Carl Junction provided a huge challenge to Lutheran St. Charles, but the Cougars hung on to win another state title (the last being in 2013).  Lutheran was my #2 team most of the year, losing by two to Burroughs during the season.  I always thought they had a chance but there were five or six teams that looked like champions back in early March.  

The Cougars peaked just at the right time but it wasn't their offense that won the championship.  Neither Lutheran nor Carl Junction shot well (~35% eFG) but it was the Cougars' defense that kept them in the game, stifling the Lady Bulldogs.  It would be the only loss for the Lady Bulldogs to a Missouri team this year (the other to Sapulpa), finishing a remarkable 30-2.  The Cougars finished 27-5, having losses to Rolla, Vashon, St. James, Alton Illinois, and John Burroughs.  Carl Junction won their second second-place trophy in the last six years.

Class five girls was a crowded field. The top seven to ten teams were all worthy of a state title and two of them, #5 Helias and #8 Rolla, did not even make the final eight at state.

The most remarkable rating is #15 Whitfield, who made it to the final eight after having four players quit in December and having their schedule put on hold for a month while they found enough players to field a five-some for tip-offs.  Playing many of their games in the fourth quarter with four players (injuries and fouls waylaying one of their starting five), they managed to win their district and give Lutheran St. Charles a game for a while until the Cougars pulled away.  Kudos to the Whitfield girls and coach Chris Ellis.

Here are my final class five girls ratings.  Enjoy.

Updated 3/02/2023

I have been asleep at the wheel and forgot to post the class five girls' ratings by district so you have to put some trust in Gramps that I am not putting something over on my readers.  I took the last rating from earlier and organized it by the district.  

I don't have all the scores from tonight but what I do have looks like it is going to form.  I missed five teams out of 29 games for an 83% prediction rate, very similar to the games I picked in classes one through four.

There are some district games in districts 5, 6 and 7.  The State championship is more competitive in class five girls than just about any other boys or girls class.  About five teams could all win the championship with the favorites being John Burroughs, Helias, Lutheran St. Charles and Carl Junction.  Rolla and Jefferson City are not too far behind this elite group .

Best wishes to all remaining teams.

 

as of 2/01/2023

I have been hearing the remarkable story of Whitfield girls' basketball from my Weight Watchers coach and Missouri Baptist men's and women's basketball announcer, Paul Ellis.  For some people, it might seem sad, but it is really an incredible outcome to a situation that could have ended the season. Paul's brother, Chris, took over the girls' coaching job this past fall and has had a roller-coaster ride.  I will let Chris speak for himself through the text he sent to Paul a few days ago.

"Congratulations to our Whitfield WBB team.  They did something tonight that I have never seen in my 40 years coaching basketball either at the professional (Stl RiverQueens) collegiate or high school level.

First of all, some background.  When I accepted the job at Whitfield I was incredibly excited to inherit the crux of a returning state championship-caliber team.  Whitfield did in fact win the Missouri State Class 5A Championship in 2021 and took second last year.  Again, almost all the players were returning.

Fall rolled around and only a couple girls showed up for optional workouts.  I wasn’t too concerned, as I just figured some had fall activities that needed tending to, and when practice rolled around they’d be ready to roll.
Well, we began with eight kids, the most exceptionally talented.  We split our first four games losing to perennial Kansas state champions Bishop Miege and to yet another State Champion John Burroughs by single digits. Regardless, I was excited about our possibilities moving forward.

Well, things changed drastically.  Right before our next game in mid-December, four players, including three talented veteran starters, suddenly decided they didn’t wish to play basketball anymore.  Their decision had very little to do with anything that occurred thus far this season, so despite all kinds of efforts to get them to see the effects their decision would have, nothing changed their minds.  We were down to four kids.

After having to forfeit the next contest, the school decided rightfully to put our season on hold.  One of my remaining kids got a young lady who had never played basketball before at any level to give the game a try.  After she got In the required number of state-mandated practices, we played our first game with only FIVE Players last week after a forty-one-day hiatus.  Though we lost by 20 points, it was a valiant effort and all kids played every second of a 32-minute game against Edwardsville, a quality opponent.

Which brings me to today.  Tonight, with again only five kids comprised of a lone senior, three sophomores (one who has never played before) and a freshman, we led by 5 with under three minutes to play. 

At the 2:58 mark, our senior was fouled and developed a sharp cramp in her leg, and was unable to return.  The player I designated to shoot her free throws made both shots. 

Whitfield up by seven.

With just under two minutes to play, our freshman fouls out. 5 on 3. 

They press the entire floor and manage to tie the game and go up by 2 with 20 seconds to play.  They have the ball and We have to foul.  One of our sophomores picks up foul number five.  5 on 2. They are pressing up to the last possession including the last one where we somehow manage to inbound the ball and let go a three-point desperation ball at the buzzer.  It falls short.

It was the most valiant, courageous, gutsy and classy effort a coach could ever ask.  Thank you TeTe, Kali, Amali, Caroline and Kayli.  So proud to be your coach.

WE ARE WARRIORS.
Coach Ellis"

It is an amazing story for the Warriors.  They went from a perennial powerhouse to a suspended team until this courageous soccer girl came out to help the team.  I don't know how these kids will do the rest of the year.  They will probably have more games with four players at the end of the game, which might only add to the mystique of this Whitfield girls' season.  

It is remindful of the scene in Hoosiers where Gene Hackman sends out just four guys.  The ref asks where the fifth player is and Hackman replies "my team is on the floor"!

Hoosiers was a memorable movie with some wonderful life lessons.  As I see it, those five girls will have some wonderful memories and stories to tell about how they persevered and did not quit through a tough situation and the ones that quit will have nothing to talk about and will probably be embarrassed by anyone asking about their high school basketball experience.  Their life lesson will be "I shouldn't have quit.  What was I thinking." 

The ratings aren't quite updated but I had to tell the Whitfield story.

as of 1/13/2023

It is a topsy-turvy class five girls this year.  John Burroughs leads Gramps class five girls' ratings this week with a 14-2 record with losses to top-ranked class six Incarnate Word and #3 Helias, who are 12-2 (losing only to Hickman and #2 Lutheran St. Charles).  Lutheran St. Charles (12-2) has beaten Helias but lost to #7 Rolla and Alton Illinois.

And so it goes, as all of these top teams have knocked off or taken a hit from another top-ranked team.  It ends up being all about the entire seasons' results and the algorithm averages out all of those games to give a fair and impartial rating for each team.  The bottom line is that class five girls have eight or ten teams that all have a shot at winning a state title.  That being said, I still think Burroughs has the inside track to a repeat state championship.

as of 12/19/2022:

Because Gramps model is interactive, changes in class four or three teams will show up in some changes in other classes, like class five.  I have not done a thorough review of class five again, but some teams shifted significantly, so I am posting a new ranking even though I have not entered all class five games since 12/11.

updated 12/12/2022