Gramp's Missouri Boys Class Six Final Basketball Ratings

Gramp's Missouri Boys Class Six Basketball Ratings - Updated March 26, 2023

Was there a better class six team in recent memory than Staley?  What a beast!  They rolled over everyone in Missouri except for Vashon who they lost to by one in overtime at Vashon after having a lead late in the game.  I don't recall a #1 class six team being nine points better than the #2 Oak Park team.  Kickapoo gave Staley a good game until late and comes in at the #3 spot.  Troy, the third-place team at state comes in at #6 with Nixa and Lee's Summit West at #4 and #5.  Jackson, the fourth-place team falls in at #11, with Chaminade, North Kansas City, CBC, and Republic filling out the top ten. Kirkwood, who had been undefeated and ranked fourth most of the season, dropped to #13 with losses to St. Dominic, Eureka, and Jackson.

I don't want to go off on the Missouri Basketball coaches poll but I need to say something.  First off, I know they rate the final four in the top four, but how do you put Lee Summit West ahead of Oak Park, who lost two games to Staley, the last by seven in their district final.  Without Staley, Oak Park might have been the state champion.  And if you look at the teams Staley beat, Lee Summit was one of the closet games, which Staley won by four.  And at the state tournament, Staley beat Battle by 44, Jackson by 26 and Kickapoo by 17.  I just don't think your final four should be your top four in the final poll when brackets are so out of whack.

Hope you enjoyed Gramps class six ratings all year long.  C U next year.

Updated 3/2/2023

Class six first-round games were played last night and Gramps was surprised to see 88% of his higher-ranked teams win but the biggest surprises were in districts six and eight.  Lower-ranked Rockhurst upset Raytown and Lee's Summit beat a good Truman team in district six.  In District 8, the toughest of all districts, Park Hill South surprised North Kansas City.  Maybe it wasn't that much of a surprise as NKC was only a six-point favorite over PHS but that is still a quality win for Park Hill South.

updated 2/21/2023

I know class six districts are two weeks out but since I just published the class six ratings a few days ago, I am posting the class six boys by district rank.

The word of the day is CRAZY EIGHTS!  Yep, crazy eights in district eight are crazy great or crazy good.  District eight, with the #1 and #2 teams in class six, Staley and Oak Park, has an average team rating for all eight teams that is nearly equal to the leader in several other districts.  The three and four seeds in district eight, North Kansas City and Park Hill, could be a favorite to win almost any other district. 

District five is no slouch either with Nixa, Kickapoo, Republic and Springfield Central and district six has Lee Summit West, Truman and Raytown.  There will be some great district championship games but none better than the Staley vs. Oak Park game which might be more competitive and better than the state championship game.

The state tournament is set up with districts 1,2, 7 and 8 in the top bracket and districts, 3 through 6 in the bottom bracket.

I think it is Staley's year but that is not a given.  They will have to earn their championship.  Getting by Oak Park would only prepare them for a bunch of great class six teams in their way to a title.

Good luck to all the boys class six teams.

updated 2/18/2023

It was high school basketball at its best Friday night.  Kirkwood (21-1, 4-0) vs underdog Eureka (12-10. 3-1), playing for the Suburban Yellow conference title (both teams have one conference game left but a Eureka win would set up a three-way tie with Webster Groves and Kirkwood).  

It could have been a blow-out and it started off that way.  Kirkwood led 7-0 before the Cats got on the board with a Dakota Joggerst three.  It was 10-7 Kirkwood at the end of one.  In the second quarter, the Pioneers pushed the lead to 22-13 but Dakota Joggerst and the underclassmen backup players had settled the Eureka team down.  Would the Cats come back or would the Pioneers blow them out by 20, which Gramp's rating suggested they would?

You have to watch the finish to believe it.  Gateway Sports Venue will have an abbreviated version of the entire game on its YouTube channel.  It's a good thing John Hough ignored Gramp's ratings and showed up to video this championship battle.  

Take a look at Eureka's YouTube at about 2:05:00 for the final minute.  If you like a come-back, watch from about 1:42:00 of the girls' and boys' game broadcast. Eureka took their first lead at 31-29 on an Andrew Parker three at the end of the third quarter.  The fourth quarter was a back-and-forth affair with Eureka, on key free throws by trusty Carter Luft, getting the lead at 44-43 with just under a minute left and Kirkwood's Christian Hughes hitting an impossible floater in the paint with 8.5 seconds left to put the Pioneers back on top.  After a Cats timeout, Mason Dunlap drove the length of the floor but was rejected at the rim and there was a mad scramble on the floor with Eureka maintaining possession AND getting a timeout with 0.4 seconds left, even though the buzzer had sounded as the official signaled the timeout.

Without a dominant center to run a lob-catch and shoot play, Coach Kirby devised a three-man pick and curl play with nifty junior reserve, Nate Dorner catching the Dunlap inbounds pass as he rose off the floor to drop a floater into the basket as the horn sounded.  It was high school basketball at its finest. 

I talked about the ups and downs of emotions for coaches, players, parents, and fans during a basketball season in my last blog post.  Eureka and Kirkwood both certainly had that experience this week.  Kirkwood was undefeated until losing to a good St. Dominic's team on Wednesday.  Eureka had a bad loss to a fairly good Rockwood Summit team.  Both teams were ready to rebound from those disappointing losses and Eureka really bounced back!  The Pioneers will recover too and probably win their district.  The season can be an emotional rollercoaster ride for everyone.

I have often quoted Mark Twain who said "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics."  The statistics said Kirkwood was a 20-point favorite but even with a 20-point difference, the statistics (normal distributions, standard deviations, etc) would say Eureka always had a statistical chance of winning.  The overlap of the two teams' rating distribution would say it was under five percent but when you play the kind of defense that Eureka plays, the chances always go up.  I don't mind being wrong on the team ratings when your home team beats the statistical odds and I don't mind people being mad at me for underrating their team and not having the same optimism that the players have.  If my ratings help motivate that team, so be it.

The ratings are a yardstick of each team's season.  When they tip the ball at the start of the game, all bets are off.  The team with the most willpower and defensive stick-to-it-ism is likely going to win the game.  The only thing that matters, in the end, is who won the game.

Enjoy the last few weeks of the regular season and good luck with your district competitions.

Here's a partially updated class six ranking without last night's games.

updated 2/04/2023

Will anyone stick with Staley or are they going to run away with the class six tournament title this year?

Gramps' statistical ratings suggest that no one can touch them.  The next best team in class six is Oak Park, who would be an eleven-point underdog to Staley in district eight final.  So again, even though it sounds like a broken record, the MSHSAA playoff system will not have the best two teams in the state in the state tournament final.  Is there a 20-point state final blow-out coming?  Maybe.

In St. Louis, only Kirkwood continues undefeated and they may go into districts with an unblemished record, with only Jackson in the way from moving on.  CBC, Chaminade and SLUH have been knocking each other off in the MCC conference.  Class five DeSmet leads the MCC but the winner in that league may have three or four losses.  It seems like a down year for the MCC teams but I wouldn't count out either Chaminade or CBC from making a run at the class six title.

In the Southwest, Nixa laid claim to the top spot down yonder with a big win over Kickapoo. In the Southeast, Jackson has fallen quite a bit from early season ratings.  The best team down in the bootheel is probably class five Cape Central.

Here's my class six boys teams ratings:

updated 01/02/2023

Staley continues to be the cream of the class six crop.  Kickapoo is not too far behind and then it drops to a bunch of excellent teams, which makes Staley look out of this universe.  Games are piling up and the model continues to improve.  I have corrected an error and Nixa is ranked #6, not #9.

 updated 12/19/2022

Because Gramps model is interactive, changes in class four or three teams will show up in some changes in other classes, like class six.  I have not done a thorough review of class six again, but some teams shifted significantly, so I am posting a new ranking even though I have not entered all class six games since 12/10.

Scroll down for previous ratings

updated 12/11/2022

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