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When the district champion isn't rated tops in the district?

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  When is the district champion not rated top in the district? Well, I had an inquiry from Kevin White about Kirksville, who won the class four district eight title, beating Mexico and Hallsville.  Macon, my top team in district eight, was eliminated by Hallsville in the first round.  So Kevin, posted " It’s funny that Kirksville is the 4th ranked team out of District 8, yet were District Champs and beat all three teams in the district ranked ahead of them, two on their home floors".   Yeah, Kevin, it is funny but not in the way you think.  I rate teams on the entire season and so I don't always look at who won the district.  Sometimes a team comes out of the blue to win and it is really hard to rate them over teams that were more consistent all season.  When the teams are close, I might use what I call a weighted rating and put more stock in the district wins than the regular season. So let's look at the four teams Kevin is talking about.  I took...

Missouri Boys Basketball Tournament Ratings

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 I posted the Missouri girls' classes one through three HERE. Time for the Missouri boys classes one through three prognostications. Updated 3/3/2023 10:00pm The results are in for boys classess one through three.  Gramps predicted 75% of these tough to call quarterfinals where the competition is much closer than district games. In class three, all of the higher ranked teams won and the actual spread were not that bad. In class two, Principia upset Cooter but I thought that might happen.  The other games went to form. In class one, I missed on two closely rated games.  Platte Valley took down #1 ranked Green City by six and Glasgow "upset Atlanta by nine. Class Three: coming soon.  Headed to game and will finish later. Class Two:  Class two has some great balance.  Except for #24 ranked Clopton, all of the teams are in my top 20.  In the top bracket, Cooter faces Principia and always dangerous duo of Jaylen Edwards and Stephen Okoro.  Cooter ...

Missouri Girls' State Tournament Quarterfinals

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Updated 3/7/2023  Last night was class five and six Missouri girls' district finals.   I took in the Eureka game with my lovely, oldest daughter. Gramps hit on all cylinders, getting eight out of eight right in class six, was seven out of eight in class five and six out of eight in the class four sectionals.  That adds up to 21 out of 24 for the night (87.5%).  For the post-season, Gramps has predicted 83% of 991 total games for boys and girls, all classes.  The tables for class six, five and four are below the Winning Percentage summary: Class six:  All of my top-ranked teams won their district titles, however, the #1 seeds in districts five and seven both lost to lower-seeded teams (not the way I would have seeded either district).  Do I need to repeat that?  All of my top-ranked teams won.  Maybe it is time to rethink how the seeding process is done? Going forward, the winner of the Jackson/Eureka game will play the winner of districts sev...

Gramp's Prediction Accuracy - updated

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 Updated March 7, 2023 It was a wild night for Missouri boys' classes four through six.  Class four sectionals went pretty much as expected, class five was fairly uneventful other than Sikeston upsetting #1 rated Cape Central, and class six was "upset" city. On a sad note, I heard that a player from the Salisbury class two boys team died Sunday.  It is a real tragedy when we lose a young man or woman and my heart breaks to hear this.  The team will continue on for the state semi-finals this week with the blessing of the grieving family.  Please keep the White family in your thoughts and prayers. I went to the Class six District 2 game between Hwy 109 rivals Eureka and Lafayette.  I keep game statistics for Eureka and I expected Lafayette, led by Matt Haefner, to beat my Cats by five.  Eureka has struggled to find the basket all year, shooting around 28% from three but last night they shot 57% on nine makes out of fourteen attempts.  But that wasn...

Gramp's Missouri Class two boys' and girls' basketball ratings by district

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 Here are Gramps Missouri class two team ratings by district.  The team ranking in the state is listed on the left, then the team, district and rating.  The difference in rating between two teams is the predicted spread. Get out there and root for your team!

Gramp's Class One Boys and Girls Basketball Ratings by district

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 It's that time of year.  Missouri class one districts start tonight and everyone is looking to go deep into the tournament.  Well, maybe not everyone.  Some would like to play another game.  Some teams just want to finish with a good game, even if it is the end of the season.  All that work!  Time to get it done. Gramp's is putting the boy's and girl's rating together here.  Take a good look.  The team rank in all of class one is followed by the school name, district and Gramp's rating. Updated 2/21/2023 - Richland Essex and Osborn/Stewartville were incorrectly put in district one boys.  Tina Avalon and Norborne were misplaced in the girls.

Ladue vs Troy - Gramp's Braggin' Rights analysis

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 Updated 2/14/2023 9:30am I got a laugh out of reading the back-and-forth banter (really more of an opinion-pissing match) about Troy and Ladue between John Hough of Gateway Sports Venue and Al Hartwig.  I am not sure of Hartwig's allegiance (Troy Buchanan or maybe it is Troy Illinois? and if that is the case, ignore my analysis) but he was giving John, a Ladue grad, a boatload of crap about the excellent Ladue Ram team. In any case, I added Triad in Troy Illinois to the bottom of this analysis. I hate it when grown men fight, especially when they are throwing opinions around and not using data.  Do you know the saying?  "Opinions are like assholes; everyone has one".  But opinions do not solve arguments while data can go a long way to helping. John suggested that Troy hadn't played anyone.  John's Twitter quote about Ladue was " 3-0 against current top 10 small schools including a key victory over #3 Burroughs. Also beat Francis Howell (14-9) by 11, Riteno...