Ladue vs Troy - Gramp's Braggin' Rights analysis

 Updated 2/14/2023 9:30am

I got a laugh out of reading the back-and-forth banter (really more of an opinion-pissing match) about Troy and Ladue between John Hough of Gateway Sports Venue and Al Hartwig.  I am not sure of Hartwig's allegiance (Troy Buchanan or maybe it is Troy Illinois? and if that is the case, ignore my analysis) but he was giving John, a Ladue grad, a boatload of crap about the excellent Ladue Ram team. In any case, I added Triad in Troy Illinois to the bottom of this analysis.

I hate it when grown men fight, especially when they are throwing opinions around and not using data.  Do you know the saying?  "Opinions are like assholes; everyone has one".  But opinions do not solve arguments while data can go a long way to helping.

John suggested that Troy hadn't played anyone.  John's Twitter quote about Ladue was "3-0 against current top 10 small schools including a key victory over #3 Burroughs. Also beat Francis Howell (14-9) by 11, Ritenour (14-6) by 23, and Parkway West (15-6) by 14. Deep team who’ve been consistent all year at 18-5. Troy hasn’t even played anybody in either ranking."

It is a hard position for John.  He loves his alma mater but gets accused of ranking them too high even when they deserve it and this year they do deserve a high ranking.  I thought, well guys, instead of throwing mud at each other, let's settle this by throwing statistics at each other.

Al's off in left field dissing about large schools beating small schools.  Don't matter how big they are, does it?  It does matter how good they are!  Ever hear of Incarnate Word Academy... small school, big basketball program.  John Burroughs, same for both boys and girls.  Cardinal Ritter, Vashon?  A Ladue win over Westminster or John Burroughs is a BIG DEAL.

I took a look at both teams and came to the following conclusions (schedule with results and common opponents are shown below:

1. Head-to-head opponents - Ladue wins the head-to-head.  Both teams played Francis Howell (even), Lafayette (Troy lost, Ladue won), Lindbergh (Troy won, Ladue lost) and Fort Zumwalt West (Ladue won by 34, Troy by 10)

2. Strength of Schedule - Both teams have about a 120 SOS although Ladue is 120.4 and Troy is 119.8 but who's splitting hairs.

3. Power Rating - Both teams are rated 135 in Gramp's Missouri ratings, based on a slight weighting I used, however, the raw rating favors Troy's 136 to Ladue's 133.  I overweighted several Ladue games where they beat teams (Westminster, Parkway West) that had similar ratings and I have underweighted several Troy games (Clopton, Lafayette. Lindbergh) where they underperformed their raw rating.  I would say that based on all things being equal, their ratings are a wash.

So, guys, cool it a little.  Rely on Gramp's analysis rather than throwing firebombs at each other on Twitter.  I know it is entertaining to read these back-and-forth "gotchas"  but trying to settle an argument with opinions is like bringing butter knives to a gunfight.  

I got the gun.  It's called statistics and you need to employ me instead of trying to carve each other up with a butter knife. 

Since I couldn't really tell who the boys were arguing about, I went through Triad HS in Troy Illinois, who beat the Rams at Ladue by four.  I want to show how Triad could be ranked below Ladue, even though they won the game.  My ratings are based upon the whole season, not one fluke game.

Here is Triad's schedule with their game ratings and Strength of Schedule (average opponents ratings).  So my bottom line is this... "Even a blind mule finds water".  Or a 125 rated team like Triad could beat Ladue on Ladue's home court.