2022-2023 Missouri Boy's and Girl's Basketball Ratings

 Since I have been rating Missouri High School teams since 2018, I have a good history of how they have fared in Gramp's ratings.  I decided to take a look at which teams have improved the most over last year to start.   I will look at consistency in a later post (consistency is measured as the standard deviation in-game ratings over the season) but not until I get enough games for each team to make it statistically significant.  The consistency measure would show you how consistent each team is, game to game.  Teams that are less consistent might beat a higher-rated team one week and lose big to a lower-rated team later in the week.  These teams are harder to nail down for an overall rating because they are so inconsistent. I was curious about which teams have improved the most.  I know that Principia of St. Louis brought in two new players in 5'10" freshman Point Guard Jaylen Edwards (16ppg) and 6'9" senior power forward Stephen Okoro (13ppg, 11...

 Here are Gramp's Missouri Class Four Girls Final basketball ratings, Updated 3/28/2023 I had the Vashon girls rated #1 all year long and I thought their toughest game would be vs. my #2 team, Cardinal Ritter, in the district 5 final.  Vashon won that game by 12 and I thought that might be the closest game the Lady Wolverines might have in the state tournament but I was wrong.  Not the first time and probably not the last. Who would prove Gramps wrong?  Well, the St. Joseph Benton girls did just that.  I had them rated #4 all year but a 14-point underdog to Vashon, and it looked like Vashon would coast to a victory in the first half of the finale, with a 24-16 lead at one point of the first half.  Benton would not go quietly, scoring the first 11 points of the second half and going up 55-44 with 3:47 left in the game.  Vashon kept picking at the lead but still was down by nine with just over two minutes left.  It looked grim for the Lady Wolv...

 Here are Gramp's Missouri Girls Class One Basketball ratings - Updated 3/19/2023 Has there been a class one team like Meadville in the past twenty or more years?  Maybe there has some extraordinary teams but none in my memory like Meadville whose rating would put them in the top 10 in class five or six teams.  Wow! They won their games this year by an average of 40 points and won by an average of 11 points in the state tournament with only Leeton staying close, losing 51-46.  Chadwick made a run at Meadville, losing by eleven in the state championship game and they made a statement by defeating Delta by two and Platte Valley by four.    I had Chadwick in my top ten all year but at least a twenty-point underdog to Meadville (wasn't that the case for most of their games?).  I thought maybe the win over Delta was a fluke but they showed their mettle the rest of the way. I knew that the Delta vs. South Iron game in the first round would be a potentia...

 Here are Gramp's Missouri Girls Class Three Basketball ratings, Updated 3/20/2023 Final class three girls ratings Updated 2/26/2023 Class three girls district competitions were fast and furious, especially district six with #2 South Shelby and #6 Palmyra but Gramps managed to pick both districts and come up with an 86% prediction percentage on all district games.  District 2 was a killer with only two picks right out of five games.  Will need to sharpen the pencil next time. I did have a couple schools in the wrong district but have updated that as well.  I will recalculate the ratings and post next week. Updated 2/10/2023 I have been posting updated ratings and then following with the ratings by district, but since I am behind on the girls class three, I am posting them both here.  The top ratings is by rank order and the second table will be class three girls sorted by district.  Fair Grove and South Shelby continue to dominate class three with Skyl...

Here are Gramp's Missouri Girls Class Two Basketball ratings - Updated 3/19/2023 One month ago, I had Tipton in the #2 spot behind St. Josephs Bishop LeBlond and both looked like title contenders but Tipton ripped through the state tournament rounds, winning by a margin of 30 points and beating Le Blond by 19 in the championship game, avenging their only loss to Le Blond by 4 points back in late January.  Tipton outscored opponents, on average by 36 points, 68 to 32 points per game. New Haven made a big run in the tournament, moving up from #17 in the mid-season to finish #9 in the final poll.  They did come home with a third-place trophy, making all their hard work so worthwhile.  Norwood, who finished fourth in the tournament was another team that made a run during the tournament, moving up from #25 to # 20 in the final ratings. Like Meadville in class 1, Tipton could be in the top ten for class five or six.  They were that good. Enjoy. See you next year. Upda...

Updated 3/28/2023 Updated 2/23/202# Updated 1/25/2023   Posted 1/20/2023 Here are the updated All Missouri Girls basketball ratings for EVERY CLASS in alphabetical order.  Everyone else puts out a top 10 or top 20.  Gramps?  He checks them all with statistical accuracy.   Ain't nobody going to touch Incarnate Word again this year but a few might try.  Check out my rank order listing if you are having to want to check out your team's ranking in these 530 teams.   The actual team ranking is listed in column one. Here are Gramp's All Missouri Girls Basketball ratings (in Alphabetical order), as of 1/06/2023: The alphabetical listing below is updated for classes two through six but not one.  I will add class one as the model is built. as of 12/23/2022:

Updated 3/28/2023 Updated 2/23/2023 Updated 1/25/2023 Posted 1/22/2023 Here are the updated All Missouri Girls basketball ratings for EVERY CLASS.  Everyone else puts out a top 10 or top 20.  Gramps?  He checks them all with statistical accuracy.   Ain't nobody going to touch Incarnate Word again this year but a few might try.  Check out my Alphabetical listing if you are having trouble finding your team in these 530 teams. Posted 1/05/2023   Here are Gramp's All Missouri Girls combined ratings with all 527 MSHSAA teams, as of 1/06/2023.  It is still early,  but there is no equivocation about Incarnate Word being #1 in the girls' ratings.  Truman seems to be a solid #2. Some team, like Vashon, have played most of their games outside Missouri and it is hard to pin down how good they might be but, from what I can calculate, they appear to be a top 20, if not a top 10 team.  I will get a better read on the Lady Wolverines once the...

 Here are Gramp's Missouri Class Five Girls Final basketball ratings - Update 3/28/2023 It was an interesting class five girls' state tournament.  My previous #1, John Burroughs, got bumped off in the first round by upstart Cape Notre Dame who then gave Carl Junction everything they had, losing by just four.  Carl Junction provided a huge challenge to Lutheran St. Charles, but the Cougars hung on to win another state title (the last being in 2013).  Lutheran was my #2 team most of the year, losing by two to Burroughs during the season.  I always thought they had a chance but there were five or six teams that looked like champions back in early March.   The Cougars peaked just at the right time but it wasn't their offense that won the championship.  Neither Lutheran nor Carl Junction shot well (~35% eFG) but it was the Cougars' defense that kept them in the game, stifling the Lady Bulldogs.  It would be the only loss for the Lady Bulldogs...

 Here are Gramp's Missouri Class Six Girls Final basketball ratings - Updated 3/28/2023 I don't know if my ratings are creeping up every year or if Incarnate Word Academy is getting better every year?  If the later is the case, then it is lights out for the rest of the class six girls' teams.  Maybe the MSHSAA league should establish a class seven and just put IWA in it by themselves? There was never any doubt about who would win class six except for by how many points.  The Red Knights have won 100 straight games, eleven state titles since 2010 with one second and one third-place, and a covid year that they would have won.  In the past fifteen years, if I have my math right, they have won 429 games and lost 40 for a 29-3 average winning record over those years. The rest of the games were good but not great.  Other than the 58-57 thriller between Rock Bridge and Park Hill South in the opening round, the rest of the games were yawners.  Teams seem ...